Postalgia
I was listening to my friends over at A Way with Words again and this guy called up with a word he’d like to add to our lexicon – postalgia. He proposed that it would mean nostalgia for the future that never came to pass. Think about scenes from The Jetsons and Back to the Future II and consider how far off that reality still is. Disappointed? That’s postalgia!
Interestingly enough, the idea of postalgia was fresh in my mind, because I had recently heard a piece by Andy Rooney on 60 Minutes wherein he unearthed a CBS Evening News five part story back from 1986 predicting what life would look like in 2001. Here’s what CBS predicted.
By 2001, the Russians will have landed on Mars. Never happened. Domestically, Los Angeles will be the largest US city, with phoenix the fastest growing. Again, they’re wrong. New York, New York is still our largest city, with LA and Vegas the largest growing. Worldwide, Mexico City was to be the largest city with 35 million populates. Mexico City only has 8.5 million people (9th place). If you include the surrounding urban areas, it jumps to 2nd place with 18.7 million people, but well behind 1st place Tokyo with, you guessed it, 35 million. Right number, wrong city, I suppose.
Technology was supposed to produce “cows the size of elephants” and “pigs 5 feet tall!” I, for one, am glad this never came to fruition. Cars were to be voice activated and bathrooms were to serve as a home’s entertainment center. Huh? The pharmaceutical industry would provide miracle cures for cancer, heart disease, baldness, alcoholism, and phobias. Higher efficiency machines and computers would result in a 6 hour work day, 30 hours a week. Nope. Lives would be longer, with 108,000 people over the age of 100 years old. Actually, there are only about half that many Centurions – 55,000.
I decided to research the issue a little further. I read in the news that Google has come up with this new feature which allows you to search newspaper articles back to the 18th century. You can then use the timeline feature to see how ideas have evolved on a given topic over time. While it’s a great idea, I quickly found that you had to pay to access most of the articles. Bummer. Time magazine, however, allows you to access their archives for free. I found an article back from 1966 in which “The Futurists” predicted what the world would look like in 2000. Ready to feel postalgic? Here goes.
According to the experts interviewed by Time Magazine in 1966, by the year 2000, the US would have 330 million people with 90% living in or around cities. Population was “only” 280 million in 2000, and it’s not expected to break 330 million until 2020. Only about 60% of people lived in metropolitan areas at the turn of the millennium. Interestingly, the article stated that only the “gloomiest forecasts” have population reaching 6 billion by 2000. The 6 billion persons mark was surpassed a year earlier in 1999. The pessimists were spot on.
Back in ’66, they expected huge advanced in transportation by now. Planes would carry 1,000 people and travel just short of the speed of sound. Ballistic rockets would transport people anywhere on Earth in under 40 minutes. These days, it takes twice that time just to get through airport security! Also, men never made it to Mars, as expected. We’re all still waiting for Kia to introduce an affordable hovercraft.
Did they predict the internet? Maybe. They thought that cities would be able to decentralize because of the advent of instant communication. Indeed, this “countrywide telecommunication network” will allow people to work from home. That’s pretty close, only instead of a country wide network, we use the more descriptive and alliterate moniker World Wide Web. In addition, they discussed “electronic "information retrieval," meaning that “the contents of libraries and other forms of information or education will be stored in a computer and will be instantly obtainable at home by dialing a code.” That’s pretty much how it works, isn’t it? Wild.
They also missed the mark a time or two. For instance, they predicted that “frogmen farmers” will grow protein-rich kelp and seaweed, while living underwater for months at a time. The sea-produce will be ground into flavorless cereal which will be chemically flavored to taste like steak or bourbon. They may have missed the mark on frogmen farmers, but technology is presently being used to make soybeans taste like just about anything.
They predicted that advances in medicine will make artificial hearts, lungs, and stomachs “commonly available.” Hand held devices will effectively allow the blind to “see” and the deaf to “hear.” Computerized limbs will be linked to the brain to aid amputees. Human tissue was supposed to be grown on demand. Additionally, fetuses were to be grown outside the uterus for the woman’s convenience. Bacterial and viral diseases were to be wiped out, along with heart disease, cancer, memory loss associated with old age, and birth defects. Drugs for personality shaping will be common, such as “anti-grouch” pills a wife may slip into her husband’s coffee.
We were to gain control of DNA to the extent that “man will become the only animal that can direct his own evolution”
At home, our meals would be prepared by robots. Still, the role of the house wife, they predicted, was safe, because, while grocery shopping from home will be possible via video phone, it will flop “because women like to get out of the house, like to handle the merchandise, and like to be able to change their minds.” Wow. Well, if nothing else, at least they were right that no measure of technological advance will stop a woman from changing her mind.
On the job, they foresaw that most workers will be replaced by computers, with only 10% of the population working, while the rest is paid to be idle. In ’66, 40% of the population was working with the remaining 60% students or housewives. By 1984, they predicted, one would spend 25 years in school, 25 years working, and 25 years retired. I don’t know about you, but I graduated school at the age of 25 and I’m planning on going back for another 3-5 years. Of this much they were right - a high school diploma isn’t good enough for most jobs. Indeed, most people find they need post graduate or professional degrees.
Some closing predictions: “amid general plenty, politics will simply fade away”; we were share an “increasingly homogenized world culture”; “My hunch, is that man may have finally expiated his original sin, and might now aspire to bliss.” Religiosity has undergone a renaissance, especially in our post-9/11 culture. And, as the saying goes, it’s politics as usual...
What’s to be concluded from the distinctly human proclivity to overestimate the future? How long have the Jews been waiting for their savior? How much longer will the Christians wait for the second coming? Is the same thing at play when we dream of flying cars and robots serving us the perfect crème brulee? Look how we long for that perfect husband! Look at how we wait for the perfect moment to leave that crummy job! Look at how we procrastinate even with that which is so important to us. Maybe postalgia could serve as a check against these tendencies. Maybe if we remember our past failure in putting all of our stock in tomorrows, then we will be allowed to live more fully in our todays. The first step will be to have our language make this concept part of our everyday parlance. Postalgia is the reminder that tomorrow will look a lot like today. The question then becomes, as it should, what’s one to do with today?
Interestingly enough, the idea of postalgia was fresh in my mind, because I had recently heard a piece by Andy Rooney on 60 Minutes wherein he unearthed a CBS Evening News five part story back from 1986 predicting what life would look like in 2001. Here’s what CBS predicted.
By 2001, the Russians will have landed on Mars. Never happened. Domestically, Los Angeles will be the largest US city, with phoenix the fastest growing. Again, they’re wrong. New York, New York is still our largest city, with LA and Vegas the largest growing. Worldwide, Mexico City was to be the largest city with 35 million populates. Mexico City only has 8.5 million people (9th place). If you include the surrounding urban areas, it jumps to 2nd place with 18.7 million people, but well behind 1st place Tokyo with, you guessed it, 35 million. Right number, wrong city, I suppose.
Technology was supposed to produce “cows the size of elephants” and “pigs 5 feet tall!” I, for one, am glad this never came to fruition. Cars were to be voice activated and bathrooms were to serve as a home’s entertainment center. Huh? The pharmaceutical industry would provide miracle cures for cancer, heart disease, baldness, alcoholism, and phobias. Higher efficiency machines and computers would result in a 6 hour work day, 30 hours a week. Nope. Lives would be longer, with 108,000 people over the age of 100 years old. Actually, there are only about half that many Centurions – 55,000.
I decided to research the issue a little further. I read in the news that Google has come up with this new feature which allows you to search newspaper articles back to the 18th century. You can then use the timeline feature to see how ideas have evolved on a given topic over time. While it’s a great idea, I quickly found that you had to pay to access most of the articles. Bummer. Time magazine, however, allows you to access their archives for free. I found an article back from 1966 in which “The Futurists” predicted what the world would look like in 2000. Ready to feel postalgic? Here goes.
According to the experts interviewed by Time Magazine in 1966, by the year 2000, the US would have 330 million people with 90% living in or around cities. Population was “only” 280 million in 2000, and it’s not expected to break 330 million until 2020. Only about 60% of people lived in metropolitan areas at the turn of the millennium. Interestingly, the article stated that only the “gloomiest forecasts” have population reaching 6 billion by 2000. The 6 billion persons mark was surpassed a year earlier in 1999. The pessimists were spot on.
Back in ’66, they expected huge advanced in transportation by now. Planes would carry 1,000 people and travel just short of the speed of sound. Ballistic rockets would transport people anywhere on Earth in under 40 minutes. These days, it takes twice that time just to get through airport security! Also, men never made it to Mars, as expected. We’re all still waiting for Kia to introduce an affordable hovercraft.
Did they predict the internet? Maybe. They thought that cities would be able to decentralize because of the advent of instant communication. Indeed, this “countrywide telecommunication network” will allow people to work from home. That’s pretty close, only instead of a country wide network, we use the more descriptive and alliterate moniker World Wide Web. In addition, they discussed “electronic "information retrieval," meaning that “the contents of libraries and other forms of information or education will be stored in a computer and will be instantly obtainable at home by dialing a code.” That’s pretty much how it works, isn’t it? Wild.
They also missed the mark a time or two. For instance, they predicted that “frogmen farmers” will grow protein-rich kelp and seaweed, while living underwater for months at a time. The sea-produce will be ground into flavorless cereal which will be chemically flavored to taste like steak or bourbon. They may have missed the mark on frogmen farmers, but technology is presently being used to make soybeans taste like just about anything.
They predicted that advances in medicine will make artificial hearts, lungs, and stomachs “commonly available.” Hand held devices will effectively allow the blind to “see” and the deaf to “hear.” Computerized limbs will be linked to the brain to aid amputees. Human tissue was supposed to be grown on demand. Additionally, fetuses were to be grown outside the uterus for the woman’s convenience. Bacterial and viral diseases were to be wiped out, along with heart disease, cancer, memory loss associated with old age, and birth defects. Drugs for personality shaping will be common, such as “anti-grouch” pills a wife may slip into her husband’s coffee.
We were to gain control of DNA to the extent that “man will become the only animal that can direct his own evolution”
At home, our meals would be prepared by robots. Still, the role of the house wife, they predicted, was safe, because, while grocery shopping from home will be possible via video phone, it will flop “because women like to get out of the house, like to handle the merchandise, and like to be able to change their minds.” Wow. Well, if nothing else, at least they were right that no measure of technological advance will stop a woman from changing her mind.
On the job, they foresaw that most workers will be replaced by computers, with only 10% of the population working, while the rest is paid to be idle. In ’66, 40% of the population was working with the remaining 60% students or housewives. By 1984, they predicted, one would spend 25 years in school, 25 years working, and 25 years retired. I don’t know about you, but I graduated school at the age of 25 and I’m planning on going back for another 3-5 years. Of this much they were right - a high school diploma isn’t good enough for most jobs. Indeed, most people find they need post graduate or professional degrees.
Some closing predictions: “amid general plenty, politics will simply fade away”; we were share an “increasingly homogenized world culture”; “My hunch, is that man may have finally expiated his original sin, and might now aspire to bliss.” Religiosity has undergone a renaissance, especially in our post-9/11 culture. And, as the saying goes, it’s politics as usual...
What’s to be concluded from the distinctly human proclivity to overestimate the future? How long have the Jews been waiting for their savior? How much longer will the Christians wait for the second coming? Is the same thing at play when we dream of flying cars and robots serving us the perfect crème brulee? Look how we long for that perfect husband! Look at how we wait for the perfect moment to leave that crummy job! Look at how we procrastinate even with that which is so important to us. Maybe postalgia could serve as a check against these tendencies. Maybe if we remember our past failure in putting all of our stock in tomorrows, then we will be allowed to live more fully in our todays. The first step will be to have our language make this concept part of our everyday parlance. Postalgia is the reminder that tomorrow will look a lot like today. The question then becomes, as it should, what’s one to do with today?
posted by Donkey Boy at Thursday, September 07, 2006
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home